Bangladesh's gross domestic product per person is projected to edge just ahead of India's in 2026, according to the International Monetary Fund's latest World Economic Outlook, a crossover that says as much about exchange rates as about the two economies.

The fund puts Bangladesh's GDP per capita at about $2,886 for the 2025-26 fiscal year, against $2,750 for India — a gap of roughly $136, The Business Standard reported. The difference is small, but the symbolism is not: India's economy is about eight times larger.

Measured in current US dollars, Bangladesh led India on this measure for seven years from 2018 before India moved ahead in 2025, when the taka weakened sharply. Bangladesh had also been ahead between 1989 and 2002.

The IMF expects India to retake the lead in fiscal year 2029 and to hold it at least through 2031, when the gap is projected to widen to around $709. India's GDP per capita is forecast at $3,662 in FY29 against Bangladesh's $3,334.

Economists caution that GDP per capita in current dollars is driven largely by exchange rates, because each country's output is converted at the prevailing rate. A weaker currency shrinks the dollar value of output even when the underlying economy grows, so the figure does not by itself show which population is better off.

The picture changes when living costs are taken into account. On a purchasing-power-parity basis, which converts output into a common international dollar based on what each currency can buy at home, India stays clearly ahead: about $12,998 per person in FY26 against Bangladesh's $10,884, a gap of 19.4 percent.

The fund also expects India to remain South Asia's fastest-growing major economy over the forecast period, while Bangladesh records the region's slowest growth. Bangladesh's GDP is projected at $506.4 billion in FY26, well short of its stated ambition of reaching $1 trillion by 2034. The Maldives has the region's highest income per person, at about $19,507, followed by Sri Lanka and Bhutan.